Hamburg SV vs Werder Bremen prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen: Bandwagon's model makes Werder Bremen a 48% favorite (Werder Bremen −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 57%.
Hamburg SV vs Werder Bremen model odds and win probability
Axle gives Werder Bremen a 48% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that Werder Bremen win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 48%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Polymarket has Werder Bremen at 58%, Axle at 48%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Werder Bremen
All Bundesliga ratings| HSV | SVW | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1382 15th of 18 | 1404 10th of 18 |
| Record | 4-5 | 4-2-3 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SVW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | — |
Hamburg SV vs Werder Bremen odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Werder Bremen at 57%, Polymarket at 58% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 48%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HSV | Draw | SVW | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 21% | 22% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 20% | 22% | 58% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 28% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Hamburg SV vs Werder Bremen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Werder Bremen a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 48% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Werder Bremen 1404 (10th of 18), Hamburg SV 1382 (15th). The Werder Bremen are 4-2-3; the Hamburg SV are 4-5. The Werder Bremen have won 2 of their last 5; the Hamburg SV 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Werder Bremen won 1, the Hamburg SV 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Hamburg SV
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Paderborn 07 | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Werder Bremen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TSG Hoffenheim | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mainz | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Paderborn 07 | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Dortmund | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Werder Bremen at Hamburg SV | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Hamburg SV: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Werder Bremen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hamburg SV4-5 11th
- Hamburg SV rating1382 15th of 18, 9 games
- Werder Bremen4-2-3 6th
- Werder Bremen rating1404 10th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Hamburg SV 4-5
Bundesliga · 11th
No stances yet today on $HAMBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hamburg SV bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Werder Bremen 4-2-3
Bundesliga · 6th
No stances yet today on $BREMEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Werder Bremen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Werder Bremen 48% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Werder Bremen 2.0, Hamburg SV 1.5; spread Werder Bremen −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 58% for Werder Bremen. Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen, Sun, Nov 22, 11:30 AM ET.