Michigan State Spartans lead Valparaiso Beacons 27-9 with 8:04 left in the 2nd period, an 18-point margin. The model has the home side at 97 percent right now.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Breslin Student Events Center · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Valparaiso Beacons vs Michigan State Spartans: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreValparaiso 44, Michigan State 98 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMichigan State 97%
- Pregame Projected scoreMichigan State 79, Valparaiso 52
- Model spreadMichigan State −27 total 130.5
- Margin54 projected 26.8
- Total142 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Valparaiso Beacons or Michigan State Spartans: the bandwagon
Axle 3–97Market –
FinalPregame: MSU 97%Baseline: MSU 99.6% (+2.5)Big swing: 1.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 9 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 44 |
| MSU | 23 | 24 | 36 | 15 | 98 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
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Valparaiso Beacons at Michigan State Spartans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MSU over the last 5:00
Big swing1.4 ptstoward MSU at 1:59 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineMSU 99.6%game average, +2.5 points from the pregame 97.1%
Valparaiso Beacons vs Michigan State Spartans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | VAL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | VAL16/60 | MSU36/69 |
| 3-pointers | VAL5/30 | MSU8/23 |
| Free throws | VAL7/13 | MSU18/23 |
| Rebounds | VAL33 | MSU50 |
| Assists | VAL11 | MSU25 |
| Turnovers | VAL30 | MSU17 |
| Steals | VAL7 | MSU20 |
| Blocks | VAL5 | MSU2 |
| Points in the paint | VAL22 | MSU54 |
| Fast-break points | VAL5 | MSU34 |
| Fouls | VAL20 | MSU18 |
| Largest lead | VAL0 | MSU59 |
Valparaiso Beacons vs Michigan State Spartans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | VAL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAL44 | MSU98 |
| Average win probability | VAL0% | MSU100% |
| Longest scoring run | VAL+5 | MSU+24 |
| Time leading | VAL0:00 | MSU38:01 |
Valparaiso Beacons vs Michigan State Spartans odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET
Beacons3%
Win chanceSpartans97%
SpreadMSU −27closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+3323away / −3323homeaway / home
Line movementMSU win chance, 60 stored lines
+34 pts for MSU between Oct 29 and Nov 3
100%58%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | MSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 1:03 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:33 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:13 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:36 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:27 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 97% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 99% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 99% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 99% | +36 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MSU 1660 · VAL 1245
- Home spread
- −27
- Stored
- Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET · 2026-11-04 01:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Valparaiso Beacons 44, Michigan State Spartans 98. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BeaconsSpartans
Neutrals only–
BeaconsSpartans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Spartans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Valparaiso Beacons vs Michigan State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spartans a 27-point favorite at home, with a 97% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Spartans 1663 (32nd of 356), Beacons 1242 (354th). The Spartans are 1-0; the Beacons are 0-1. The Spartans have won 2 of their last 5; the Beacons 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Valparaiso Beacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Michigan State Spartans | L 44–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Drake Bulldogs | L 55–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Murray State Racers | L 68–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Belmont Bruins | L 63–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | L 42–83 | – | – | matchup |
Michigan State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Valparaiso Beacons | W 98–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | L 71–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 65–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 69–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 68–87 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Valparaiso Beacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Michigan State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Beacons0-1 11th · L1
- Beacons rating1242 354th of 356, 1 games
- Spartans1-0 3rd · W1
- Spartans rating1663 32nd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 11th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $VALWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valparaiso Beacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MSUWBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MSUWBB
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No stances yet today on $MSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Valparaiso Beacons at Michigan State Spartans
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Final: Valparaiso 44, Michigan State 98. Bandwagon's model had the Michigan State at 97% and projected Michigan State 79, Valparaiso 52; spread Michigan State −27, total 130.5.