UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
UMass Lowell at Merrimack: Bandwagon's model makes Merrimack a 79% favorite (Merrimack −12).
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors odds and win probability
Axle gives Merrimack a 79% chance to win, by about 12 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Merrimack
All WCBB ratings| UML | MRMK | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1331 327th of 357 | 1443 237th of 357 |
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MRMK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 6:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 2:02 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors a 12-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 130. Ratings: Warriors 1443 (237th of 357), River Hawks 1331 (327th). The Warriors are 0-3; the River Hawks are 2-1. The Warriors have won 0 of their last 5; the River Hawks 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UMass Lowell River Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Canisius Golden Griffins | L 61–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Niagara Purple Eagles | W 78–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMBC Retrievers | L 43–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vermont Catamounts | L 37–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Binghamton Bearcats | L 44–69 | – | – | matchup |
Merrimack Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Maine Black Bears | L 62–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NJIT Highlanders | L 35–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 51–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | L 65–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fairfield Stags | L 48–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UMass Lowell River Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Merrimack Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- River Hawks2-1 7th · L1
- River Hawks rating1331 327th of 357, 2 games
- Warriors0-3 11th · L3
- Warriors rating1443 237th of 357, 3 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UMLWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMass Lowell River Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 11th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $MRMKWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Merrimack Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Merrimack 79% to win. Projected score Merrimack 71, UMass Lowell 59; spread Merrimack −12, total 130. UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors, Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET.