North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pennsylvania Quakers prediction, odds and picks, November 14, 2026
- Projected winnerNorth Carolina 64%
- Projected scoreNorth Carolina 66, Pennsylvania 65
- Model spreadNorth Carolina −1 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Carolina Tar Heels or Pennsylvania Quakers: the bandwagon
Axle 64–36Market –
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pennsylvania Quakers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pennsylvania Quakers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pennsylvania Quakers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UNC | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNC– | PENN– |
| Average win probability | UNC– | PENN– |
| Longest scoring run | UNC– | PENN– |
| Time leading | UNC– | PENN– |
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pennsylvania Quakers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PENN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:13 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:36 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 36% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 33% | — |
- Ratings
- PENN 1546 · UNC 1696
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET · 2026-11-05 00:49 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pennsylvania Quakers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 1-point favorite, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Quakers 1546 (124th of 356), Tar Heels 1696 (19th). The Quakers are 1-0; the Tar Heels are 0-1. The Quakers have won 3 of their last 5; the Tar Heels 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 79–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 42–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 74–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 82–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 57–65 | – | – | matchup |
Pennsylvania Quakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Brown Bears | W 69–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dartmouth Big Green | W 89–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Harvard Crimson | L 46–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Yale Bulldogs | W 68–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbia Lions | L 56–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Pennsylvania Quakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tar Heels0-1 17th · L1
- Tar Heels rating1696 19th of 356, 1 games
- Quakers1-0 3rd · W1
- Quakers rating1546 124th of 356, 0 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 17th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PENNWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pennsylvania Quakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: North Carolina 64% to win. Projected score North Carolina 66, Pennsylvania 65; spread North Carolina −1, total 130.5. North Carolina Tar Heels at Pennsylvania Quakers, Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ET.