New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
New Mexico State at New Mexico: Bandwagon's model makes New Mexico an 82% favorite (New Mexico −13).
New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos odds and win probability
Axle gives New Mexico a 82% chance to win, by about 13 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has New Mexico
All WCBB ratings| NMSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1378 293rd of 357 | 1552 125th of 357 |
| Record | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 82% | −3 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:18 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:13 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:38 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:38 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:23 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:08 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:03 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:43 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:23 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:43 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 85% | — |
New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 13-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 129. Ratings: Lobos 1552 (125th of 357), Aggies 1378 (293rd). The Lobos are 1-1; the Aggies are 2-1. The Lobos have won 3 of their last 5; the Aggies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lobos won 3, the Aggies 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UTEP Miners | W 69–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds | W 64–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego Toreros | L 56–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | L 55–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters | L 47–88 | – | – | matchup |
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Seattle U Redhawks | L 62–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 61–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 86–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | W 63–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | W 69–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies | 77–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies | 60–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos | 81–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos | 52–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos | 64–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies | 64–73 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies2-1 6th · W2
- Aggies rating1378 293rd of 357, 2 games
- Lobos1-1 4th · W1
- Lobos rating1552 125th of 357, 1 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $NMSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New Mexico Lobos 1-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UNMWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos
Sign in to post a take on $NMSUWBBUNMWBB261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: New Mexico 82% to win. Projected score New Mexico 71, New Mexico State 58; spread New Mexico −13, total 129. New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.