San Diego Toreros vs New Mexico State Aggies: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreSan Diego 61, New Mexico State 56 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerNew Mexico State 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreNew Mexico State 68, San Diego 62
- Model spreadNew Mexico State −6.5 total 130.5
- Margin5 projected 6.4
- Total117 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Diego Toreros or New Mexico State Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 9 | 17 | 27 | 8 | 61 |
| NMSU | 16 | 12 | 20 | 8 | 56 |
San Diego Toreros at New Mexico State Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Diego Toreros vs New Mexico State Aggies live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | USD | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | USD20/57 | NMSU19/52 |
| 3-pointers | USD5/23 | NMSU2/14 |
| Free throws | USD16/20 | NMSU16/24 |
| Rebounds | USD36 | NMSU39 |
| Assists | USD7 | NMSU6 |
| Turnovers | USD17 | NMSU20 |
| Steals | USD6 | NMSU7 |
| Blocks | USD1 | NMSU3 |
| Points in the paint | USD26 | NMSU24 |
| Fast-break points | USD11 | NMSU9 |
| Fouls | USD24 | NMSU22 |
| Largest lead | USD8 | NMSU9 |
San Diego Toreros vs New Mexico State Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | USD | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USD61 | NMSU56 |
| Average win probability | USD45% | NMSU55% |
| Longest scoring run | USD+7 | NMSU+8 |
| Time leading | USD18:00 | NMSU17:46 |
San Diego Toreros vs New Mexico State Aggies odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NMSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- NMSU 1389 · USD 1383
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: San Diego Toreros 61, New Mexico State Aggies 56. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San Diego Toreros vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aggies a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Aggies 1375 (303rd of 356), Toreros 1398 (282nd). The Aggies are 0-1; the Toreros are 1-0. The Aggies have won 1 of their last 5; the Toreros 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aggies won 1, the Toreros 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Diego Toreros
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 61–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Francisco Dons | L 52–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Mary's Gaels | W 66–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pacific Tigers | W 64–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon State Beavers | L 49–83 | – | – | matchup |
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San Diego Toreros | L 56–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | L 55–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters | L 47–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 38–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 52–40 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego Toreros | 48–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego Toreros | 57–52 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Diego Toreros: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Toreros1-0 5th · W1
- Toreros rating1398 282nd of 356, 1 games
- Aggies0-1 9th · L1
- Aggies rating1375 303rd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USDWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego Toreros bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NMSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: San Diego 61, New Mexico State 56. Bandwagon's model had the New Mexico State at 63% and projected New Mexico State 68, San Diego 62; spread New Mexico State −6.5, total 130.5.