Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Alabama at North Carolina: Bandwagon's model makes Alabama a 51% favorite (North Carolina −2.5).
Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds and win probability
Axle gives Alabama a 51% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Alabama
All WCBB ratings| ALA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1689 24th of 357 | 1676 30th of 357 |
| Record | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:28 PM ET | 49% | −3 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:23 PM ET | 52% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 3:08 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | — |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide the favorite, with a 51% chance to win; its spread is Tar Heels −2.5. The model total is 134.5. Ratings: Tar Heels 1676 (30th of 357), Crimson Tide 1689 (24th). The Tar Heels are 0-2; the Crimson Tide are 4-0. The Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 5; the Crimson Tide 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tulane Green Wave | W 68–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 96–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU New Orleans Privateers | W 118–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 68–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rhode Island Rams | W 68–55 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Carolina Tar Heels | W 84–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 79–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 42–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 74–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 82–51 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Crimson Tide4-0 1st · W4
- Crimson Tide rating1689 24th of 357, 3 games
- Tar Heels0-2 18th · L2
- Tar Heels rating1676 30th of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 1st · streak W4
No stances yet today on $ALAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 18th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $UNCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alabama Crimson Tide at North Carolina Tar Heels
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.