Internazionale vs Atalanta prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Internazionale at Atalanta: Bandwagon's model makes Internazionale a 59% favorite (Internazionale −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 61%.
Internazionale vs Atalanta model odds and win probability
Axle gives Internazionale a 59% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Internazionale win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 59%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Kalshi has Internazionale at 61%, Axle at 59%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Internazionale
All Serie A ratings| INT | ATA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1666 1st of 20 | 1471 9th of 20 |
| Record | 9-1-1 | 4-5-2 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 5 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ATA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 17% | — |
Internazionale vs Atalanta odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Internazionale at 61%, Polymarket at 61%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | INT | Draw | ATA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% | 20% | 19% | ||
| Polymarket | 61% | 20% | 19% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 24% | 17% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Internazionale vs Atalanta prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Internazionale a 0.5-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Atalanta 1471 (9th of 20), Internazionale 1666 (1st). The Atalanta are 4-5-2; the Internazionale are 9-1-1. The Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5; the Internazionale 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Atalanta won 0, the Internazionale 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Internazionale
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Como | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AC Milan | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Venezia | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fiorentina | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bologna | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Atalanta
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta at Internazionale | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Internazionale at Atalanta | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Internazionale at Atalanta | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atalanta at Internazionale | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atalanta at Internazionale | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Internazionale at Atalanta | 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Internazionale: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Atalanta: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Internazionale9-1-1 2nd
- Internazionale rating1666 1st of 20, 11 games
- Atalanta4-5-2 12th
- Atalanta rating1471 9th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Internazionale 9-1-1
Serie A · 2nd
No stances yet today on $INTERMILAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Internazionale bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Atalanta 4-5-2
Serie A · 12th
No stances yet today on $ATALANTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atalanta bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Internazionale at Atalanta
Sign in to post a take on $INTERMILANATALANTA261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Internazionale 59% to win, draw 24%. Projected score Internazionale 2.1, Atalanta 1.4; spread Internazionale −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 61% for Internazionale. Internazionale at Atalanta, Sun, Nov 22, 2:45 PM ET.