Cagliari vs Como prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Cagliari at Como: Bandwagon's model makes Como a 68% favorite (Como −1); Kalshi prices them at 75%.
Cagliari vs Como model odds and win probability
Axle gives Como a 68% chance to win, by about 1.2 goals, with a 20% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Como win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 68%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Kalshi has Como at 75%, Axle at 68%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Como
All Serie A ratings| CAG | COMO | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1395 12th of 20 | 1568 3rd of 20 |
| Record | 5-5-1 | 7-2-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | COMO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:48 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 68% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 70% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 69% | — |
Cagliari vs Como odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Como at 75%, Polymarket at 74% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CAG | Draw | COMO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 10% | 15% | 75% | ||
| Polymarket | 9% | 17% | 74% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 12% | 20% | 68% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cagliari vs Como prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Como a 1-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Como 1568 (3rd of 20), Cagliari 1395 (12th). The Como are 7-2-2; the Cagliari are 5-5-1. The Como have won 4 of their last 5; the Cagliari 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Como won 2, the Cagliari 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Cagliari
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Frosinone | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lazio | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Roma | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bologna | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Monza | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Como
Head-to-head
Injuries
Cagliari: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Como: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cagliari5-5-1 9th
- Cagliari rating1395 12th of 20, 11 games
- Como7-2-2 5th
- Como rating1568 3rd of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Cagliari 5-5-1
Serie A · 9th
No stances yet today on $CAGLIARI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cagliari bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Como 7-2-2
Serie A · 5th
No stances yet today on $COMO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Como bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cagliari at Como
Sign in to post a take on $CAGLIARICOMO261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Como 68% to win, draw 20%. Projected score Como 1.8, Cagliari 0.7; spread Como −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 74% for Como. Cagliari at Como, Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 AM ET.