La Liga odds Saturday, November 21
Win chance, spread and total for every game. This week's La Liga odds · Today's La Liga predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
La Liga odds Saturday, November 21
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo at Alavés | Alavés 42%draw 29% | Alavés −0.5 | 2.5 | +246 / +248 / +136 | no move | Matchup | |
| Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano 49%draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano −0.5 | 2.5 | +324 / +267 / +103 | no move | Matchup | |
| Real Betis at Sevilla | Real Betis 44%draw 29% | Real Betis −0.5 | 3 | +130 / +251 / +258 | no move | Matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | Real Madrid 81%draw 13% | Real Madrid −1.5 | 2.5 | +1407 / +695 / −421 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 4 of 4
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 4 of 4
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 4
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 4
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 4 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 4
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 4
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 13, 12:11 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
La Liga team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 1712 | 12 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 1661 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 1562 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 1518 | 12 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 1497 | 12 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 1455 | 12 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 1445 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 1429 | 12 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 1428 | 11 |
| 10 | Deportivo | 1412 | 12 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 1411 | 12 |
| 12 | Valencia | 1405 | 12 |
Top 12 of 20; every team's rating is on its page.
La Liga model record
Over 783 La Liga games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 52% of the time, Brier score 0.2127, mean spread error 1.13 points, mean total error 1.319. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for La Liga games Saturday, November 21: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.