La Liga odds Monday, November 23

How these lines are made

In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal inputs

• Ratings from results used in 1 of 1
  an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
• Home advantage used in 1 of 1
  the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
• Schedule in the data but not used for 1
  rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
• Recent form in the data but not used for 1
  average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External inputs

• Injuries unavailable for 1 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
  players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
• Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 1
  distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
• Weather in the data but not used for 1
  forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 13, 12:11 PM UTC

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.