La Liga odds Friday, November 6
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's La Liga predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
La Liga odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés at Sevilla | Sevilla 49%draw 27% | Sevilla −0.5 | 3 | +315 / +267 / +106 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 1 of 1
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 1 of 1
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 1
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 1
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 1 (No injury list read before this game)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 1
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 1
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
La Liga team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 1704 | 11 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 1651 | 11 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 1571 | 11 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 1504 | 11 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 1488 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 1446 | 11 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 1446 | 10 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 1436 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 1432 | 11 |
| 10 | Valencia | 1414 | 11 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 1413 | 11 |
| 12 | Deportivo | 1411 | 11 |
Top 12 of 20; every team's rating is on its page.
La Liga model record
Over 773 La Liga games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 52% of the time, Brier score 0.2134, mean spread error 1.133 points, mean total error 1.319. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for La Liga games Friday, November 6: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.