NCAA Division I FBS football odds Thursday, November 12
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I FBS football predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I FBS football odds Thursday, November 12
2 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers at Bulls | Bulls 57% | Bulls −2.5 | 50.5 | +131 / −131 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ragin' Cajuns at Warhawks | Ragin' Cajuns 83% | Ragin' Cajuns −15.5 | 53.5 | −486 / +486 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 2 of 2
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 2 of 2
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 2
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 2
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 2 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 1 · unavailable for 1 (A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 2
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I FBS football team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana Hoosiers | 1834 | 8 |
| 2 | Miami Hurricanes | 1812 | 7 |
| 3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1795 | 7 |
| 4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1786 | 8 |
| 5 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1782 | 8 |
| 6 | Utah Utes | 1769 | 7 |
| 7 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1742 | 8 |
| 8 | Texas Longhorns | 1739 | 8 |
| 9 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1713 | 8 |
| 10 | BYU Cougars | 1705 | 7 |
| 11 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 1703 | 7 |
| 12 | Oregon Ducks | 1697 | 7 |
Top 12 of 138; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I FBS football model record
Over 2909 NCAA Division I FBS football games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 70% of the time, Brier score 0.1935, mean spread error 13.457 points, mean total error 13.063. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I FBS football games Thursday, November 12: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.