Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerStars 64%
- Projected scoreStars 3.5, Jets 2.5
- Model spreadStars −1 total 6
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Winnipeg Jets or Dallas Stars: the bandwagon
Axle 36–64Market 31–69
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WPG | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG– | DAL– |
| Average win probability | WPG– | DAL– |
| Longest scoring run | WPG– | DAL– |
| Time leading | WPG– | DAL– |
Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 64% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:43 PM ET | 65% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:41 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:46 PM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 63% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 64% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1542 · WPG 1462
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Jets vs Stars odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Stars at 69%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 64%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WPG | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 31% | 69% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 36% | 64% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stars a 1-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Stars 1542 (5th of 32), Jets 1462 (28th). The Stars are 8-5-1 in the Central Division; the Jets are 4-8-3 in the Central Division. The Stars have won 3 of their last 5; the Jets 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Stars won 6, the Jets 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Winnipeg Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Montreal Canadiens | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Hurricanes | L 0–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets | 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Winnipeg Jets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jets4-8-3 Central Division, 7th · L9
- Jets rating1462 28th of 32, 16 games
- Stars8-5-1 Central Division, 4th · W1
- Stars rating1542 5th of 32, 15 games
Winnipeg Jets 4-8-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 7th · streak L9
No stances yet today on $JETSWPG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Winnipeg Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Stars 8-5-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Stars 64% to win. Projected score Stars 3.5, Jets 2.5; spread Stars −1, total 6. Polymarket 69% for the Stars. Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET.