Manchester United vs Liverpool prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Manchester United at Liverpool: Bandwagon's model makes Liverpool a 53% favorite (Liverpool −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 57%.
Manchester United vs Liverpool model odds and win probability
Axle gives Liverpool a 53% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Liverpool win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 53%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has Liverpool at 57%, Axle at 53%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Liverpool
All EPL ratings| MAN | LIV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1461 7th of 20 | 1524 4th of 20 |
| Record | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-3-1 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LIV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | — |
Manchester United vs Liverpool odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Liverpool at 57%, Polymarket at 56% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MAN | Draw | LIV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 21% | 22% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 21% | 23% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 22% | 25% | 53% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Manchester United vs Liverpool prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Liverpool a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Liverpool 1524 (4th of 20), Manchester United 1461 (7th). The Liverpool are 5-2-3; the Manchester United are 1-4-5. The Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5; the Manchester United 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Liverpool won 1, the Manchester United 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Manchester United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Aston Villa | T 4–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AS Roma | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chelsea | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AFC Bournemouth | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Como | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Liverpool
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Crystal Palace | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arsenal | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Villarreal | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brentford | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool at Manchester United | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester United at Liverpool | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester United at Liverpool | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Liverpool at Manchester United | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Liverpool at Manchester United | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Manchester United at Liverpool | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Manchester United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Liverpool: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Manchester United1-4-5 18th
- Manchester United rating1461 7th of 20, 10 games
- Liverpool5-2-3 4th
- Liverpool rating1524 4th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Manchester United 1-4-5
Premier League · 18th
No stances yet today on $MANUNITED: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Manchester United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Liverpool 5-2-3
Premier League · 4th
No stances yet today on $LIVERPOOL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Liverpool bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Manchester United at Liverpool
Sign in to post a take on $MANUNITEDLIVERPOOL261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Liverpool 53% to win, draw 25%. Projected score Liverpool 1.6, Manchester United 0.9; spread Liverpool −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% for Liverpool. Manchester United at Liverpool, Sun, Nov 22, 11:30 AM ET.