Brighton & Hove Albion vs Hull City prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Brighton & Hove Albion at Hull City: Bandwagon's model makes Brighton & Hove Albion a 45% favorite (Brighton & Hove Albion −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 65%.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Hull City model odds and win probability
Axle gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 45% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Brighton & Hove Albion win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 45%.
The largest gap is 20 points: Kalshi has Brighton & Hove Albion at 65%, Axle at 45%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Brighton & Hove Albion
All EPL ratings| BHA | HUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1538 3rd of 20 | 1406 15th of 20 |
| Record | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | HUL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | — |
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Hull City odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Brighton & Hove Albion at 65%, Polymarket at 64% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 45%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BHA | Draw | HUL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 21% | 14% | ||
| Polymarket | 64% | 21% | 15% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 45% | 27% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Hull City prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Brighton & Hove Albion a 0.5-point favorite, with a 45% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Hull City 1406 (15th of 20), Brighton & Hove Albion 1538 (3rd). The Hull City are 2-3-5; the Brighton & Hove Albion are 7-2-1. The Hull City have won 0 of their last 5; the Brighton & Hove Albion 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Brighton & Hove Albion
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Brentford | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manchester City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liverpool | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Crystal Palace | W 5–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sunderland | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Hull City
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Brighton & Hove Albion: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Hull City: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Brighton & Hove Albion7-2-1 2nd
- Brighton & Hove Albion rating1538 3rd of 20, 10 games
- Hull City2-3-5 13th
- Hull City rating1406 15th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Brighton & Hove Albion 7-2-1
Premier League · 2nd
No stances yet today on $BRIGHTON: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Brighton & Hove Albion bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Hull City 2-3-5
Premier League · 13th
No stances yet today on $HULL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hull City bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Brighton & Hove Albion at Hull City
Sign in to post a take on $BRIGHTONHULL261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Brighton & Hove Albion 45% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Brighton & Hove Albion 1.4, Hull City 1.1; spread Brighton & Hove Albion −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 64% for Brighton & Hove Albion. Brighton & Hove Albion at Hull City, Sun, Nov 22, 9:00 AM ET.