UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs Austin Peay Governors prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
UT Rio Grande Valley at Austin Peay: Bandwagon's model makes Austin Peay a 66% favorite (Austin Peay −5.5).
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs Austin Peay Governors odds and win probability
Axle gives Austin Peay a 66% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Austin Peay
All CBB ratings| RGV | APSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1543 110th of 365 | 1523 145th of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | APSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 66% | +3 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | — |
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs Austin Peay Governors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Governors a 5.5-point favorite at home, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 144. Ratings: Governors 1523 (145th of 365), Vaqueros 1543 (110th). The Governors are 2-1; the Vaqueros are 2-1. The Governors have won 2 of their last 5; the Vaqueros 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Governors won 0, the Vaqueros 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas State Bobcats | L 65–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Prairie View A&M Panthers | W 68–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at McNeese Cowboys | L 80–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nicholls Colonels | W 86–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northwestern State Demons | W 74–62 | – | – | matchup |
Austin Peay Governors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kennesaw State Owls | L 69–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stetson Hatters | W 69–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bellarmine Knights | L 97–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Arkansas Bears | L 88–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville Dolphins | W 65–61 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay Governors at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 50–63 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Austin Peay Governors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Vaqueros2-1 6th · L1
- Vaqueros rating1543 110th of 365, 1 games
- Governors2-1 2nd · W1
- Governors rating1523 145th of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $RGVMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $APSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Austin Peay Governors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Austin Peay Governors
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Austin Peay 66% to win. Projected score Austin Peay 75, UT Rio Grande Valley 69; spread Austin Peay −5.5, total 144. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Austin Peay Governors, Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ET.