UT Arlington Mavericks vs Portland Pilots prediction, odds and picks, November 6, 2026
- Projected winnerUT Arlington 56%
- Projected scoreUT Arlington 72.9, Portland 72.6
- Model spreadUT Arlington −0.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UT Arlington Mavericks or Portland Pilots: the bandwagon
Axle 56–44Market –
UT Arlington Mavericks at Portland Pilots win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UT Arlington Mavericks vs Portland Pilots live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UT Arlington Mavericks vs Portland Pilots team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UTA | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA– | PORT– |
| Average win probability | UTA– | PORT– |
| Longest scoring run | UTA– | PORT– |
| Time leading | UTA– | PORT– |
UT Arlington Mavericks vs Portland Pilots odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PORT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | −18 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 62% | +5 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 57% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- PORT 1441 · UTA 1503
- Home spread
- +0.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:05 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UT Arlington Mavericks vs Portland Pilots prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mavericks a 0.5-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Pilots 1441 (267th of 361), Mavericks 1503 (173rd). The Pilots are 1-0; the Mavericks are 1-0. The Pilots have won 3 of their last 5; the Mavericks 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UT Arlington Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | L 65–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds | W 69–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | W 64–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tarleton State Texans | W 65–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Baptist Lancers | L 56–68 | – | – | matchup |
Portland Pilots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Francisco Dons | L 65–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 74–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pepperdine Waves | W 77–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego Toreros | W 87–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Gonzaga Bulldogs | L 48–89 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UT Arlington Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Portland Pilots: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mavericks1-0 6th · W1
- Mavericks rating1503 173rd of 361, 0 games
- Pilots1-0 2nd · W1
- Pilots rating1441 267th of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UTAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UT Arlington Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Portland Pilots 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PORTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Pilots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UT Arlington 56% to win. Projected score UT Arlington 72.9, Portland 72.6; spread UT Arlington −0.5, total 145.5. UT Arlington Mavericks at Portland Pilots, Fri, Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET.