UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Cincinnati Bearcats prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
UMass Lowell at Cincinnati: Bandwagon's model makes Cincinnati a 78% favorite (Cincinnati −9.5).
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Cincinnati Bearcats odds and win probability
Axle gives Cincinnati a 78% chance to win, by about 10 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Cincinnati
All CBB ratings| UML | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1494 187th of 365 | 1600 53rd of 365 |
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 78% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Cincinnati Bearcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bearcats a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 141.5. Ratings: Bearcats 1600 (53rd of 365), River Hawks 1494 (187th). The Bearcats are 2-1; the River Hawks are 3-0. The Bearcats have won 3 of their last 5; the River Hawks 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UMass Lowell River Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Marist Red Foxes | W 63–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Merrimack Warriors | W 71–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMBC Retrievers | L 69–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAlbany Great Danes | W 81–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maine Black Bears | W 67–56 | – | – | matchup |
Cincinnati Bearcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 61–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Phoenix | W 81–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs American University Eagles | W 79–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCF Knights | L 65–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | W 73–66 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UMass Lowell River Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cincinnati Bearcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- River Hawks3-0 1st · W3
- River Hawks rating1494 187th of 365, 2 games
- Bearcats2-1 13th · L1
- Bearcats rating1600 53rd of 365, 3 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UMLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMass Lowell River Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CINMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bearcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMass Lowell River Hawks at Cincinnati Bearcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Cincinnati 78% to win. Projected score Cincinnati 76, UMass Lowell 66; spread Cincinnati −9.5, total 141.5. UMass Lowell River Hawks at Cincinnati Bearcats, Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ET.