UCF Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
UCF at Vanderbilt: Bandwagon's model makes Vanderbilt an 89% favorite (Vanderbilt −14.5).
UCF Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores odds and win probability
Axle gives Vanderbilt a 89% chance to win, by about 15 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Vanderbilt
All CBB ratings| UCF | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1574 75th of 365 | 1678 13th of 365 |
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | VAN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 89% | +12 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 77% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:52 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:14 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 78% | — |
UCF Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Commodores a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 89% chance to win. The model total is 150. Ratings: Commodores 1678 (13th of 365), Knights 1574 (75th). The Commodores are 3-0; the Knights are 3-0. The Commodores have won 4 of their last 5; the Knights 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Commodores won 1, the Knights 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UCF Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | W 76–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Yale Bulldogs | W 87–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | W 96–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCLA Bruins | L 71–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 59–81 | – | – | matchup |
Vanderbilt Commodores
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Memphis Tigers | W 105–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 74–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bellarmine Knights | W 93–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 72–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs McNeese Cowboys | W 78–68 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt Commodores at UCF Knights | 105–93 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UCF Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vanderbilt Commodores: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Knights3-0 7th · W3
- Knights rating1574 75th of 365, 2 games
- Commodores3-0 9th · W3
- Commodores rating1678 13th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
UCF Knights 3-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UCFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UCF Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $VANMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vanderbilt Commodores bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UCF Knights at Vanderbilt Commodores
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Vanderbilt 89% to win. Projected score Vanderbilt 82, UCF 68; spread Vanderbilt −14.5, total 150. UCF Knights at Vanderbilt Commodores, Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ET.