Tarleton State Texans vs USC Trojans prediction, odds and picks, November 19, 2026
Tarleton State at USC: Bandwagon's model makes USC a 79% favorite (USC −10).
Tarleton State Texans vs USC Trojans odds and win probability
Axle gives USC a 79% chance to win, by about 10 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has USC
All CBB ratings| TAR | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1425 283rd of 365 | 1537 119th of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | USC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:53 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 79% | +2 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:03 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:14 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:19 AM ET | 77% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:02 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 7:32 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | — |
Tarleton State Texans vs USC Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Trojans a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 151. Ratings: Trojans 1537 (119th of 365), Texans 1425 (283rd). The Trojans are 2-0; the Texans are 2-1. The Trojans have won 1 of their last 5; the Texans 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Tarleton State Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Diego Toreros | L 90–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 78–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UT Arlington Mavericks | L 60–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Baptist Lancers | L 67–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup |
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at USC Trojans | L 86–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Panthers | W 95–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | L 79–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 68–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | L 72–91 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Texans2-1 6th · W1
- Texans rating1425 283rd of 365, 1 games
- Trojans2-0 10th · W2
- Trojans rating1537 119th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TARMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
USC Trojans 2-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $USCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the USC Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Tarleton State Texans at USC Trojans
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: USC 79% to win. Projected score USC 80, Tarleton State 71; spread USC −10, total 151. Tarleton State Texans at USC Trojans, Thu, Nov 19, 11:00 PM ET.