Southern Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreSouthern 72, SMU 85 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSMU 76%
- Pregame Projected scoreSMU 77, Southern 68
- Model spreadSMU −8.5 total 145.5
- Margin13 projected 8.6
- Total157 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Southern Jaguars or SMU Mustangs: the bandwagon
Axle 24–76Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 38 | 34 | 72 |
| SMU | 40 | 45 | 85 |
Southern Jaguars at SMU Mustangs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Southern Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SOU26/59 | SMU23/45 |
| 3-pointers | SOU8/21 | SMU7/17 |
| Free throws | SOU12/15 | SMU32/40 |
| Rebounds | SOU26 | SMU33 |
| Assists | SOU15 | SMU21 |
| Turnovers | SOU18 | SMU21 |
| Steals | SOU17 | SMU11 |
| Blocks | SOU2 | SMU7 |
| Points in the paint | SOU28 | SMU26 |
| Fast-break points | SOU11 | SMU17 |
| Fouls | SOU27 | SMU15 |
| Largest lead | SOU3 | SMU16 |
Southern Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SOU72 | SMU85 |
| Average win probability | SOU11% | SMU89% |
| Longest scoring run | SOU+9 | SMU+9 |
| Time leading | SOU1:12 | SMU37:36 |
Southern Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 76% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 79% | +14 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- SMU 1563 · SOU 1480
- Home spread
- −8.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET · 2026-11-03 03:07 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Southern Jaguars 72, SMU Mustangs 85. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Southern Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mustangs a 8.5-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Mustangs 1572 (68th of 361), Jaguars 1471 (225th). The Mustangs are 1-0; the Jaguars are 0-1. The Mustangs have won 2 of their last 5; the Jaguars 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Southern Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at SMU Mustangs | L 72–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Prairie View A&M Panthers | L 66–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida A&M Rattlers | W 73–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | W 84–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 88–85 | – | – | matchup |
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southern Jaguars | W 85–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 79–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 58–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | W 86–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 78–91 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Southern Jaguars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaguars0-1 10th · L1
- Jaguars rating1471 225th of 361, 1 games
- Mustangs1-0 12th · W1
- Mustangs rating1572 68th of 361, 1 games
Southern Jaguars 0-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SOUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SMU Mustangs 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SMUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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