Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs St. Thomas Tommies prediction, odds and picks, November 19, 2026
Southeast Missouri State at St. Thomas: Bandwagon's model makes St. Thomas a 73% favorite (St. Thomas −8).
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs St. Thomas Tommies odds and win probability
Axle gives St. Thomas a 73% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has St. Thomas
All CBB ratings| SEMO | STMN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1495 182nd of 365 | 1551 91st of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | STMN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:53 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 73% | −3 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 76% | +2 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 12:17 AM ET | 75% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:22 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:14 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:29 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:04 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:19 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:09 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:02 PM ET | 74% | −3 |
| Nov 6, 9:47 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:31 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 7:32 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | — |
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs St. Thomas Tommies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tommies a 8-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 147.5. Ratings: Tommies 1551 (91st of 365), Redhawks 1495 (182nd). The Tommies are 1-2; the Redhawks are 2-1. The Tommies have won 1 of their last 5; the Redhawks 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Tommies won 1, the Redhawks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | L 68–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lipscomb Bisons | W 86–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Morehead State Eagles | L 61–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | W 89–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee State Tigers | L 71–79 | – | – | matchup |
St. Thomas Tommies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Green Bay Phoenix | L 67–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 62–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Presbyterian Blue Hose | W 87–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle U Redhawks | L 52–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks | L 66–67 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas Tommies at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 84–72 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
St. Thomas Tommies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redhawks2-1 2nd · L1
- Redhawks rating1495 182nd of 365, 2 games
- Tommies1-2 6th · L2
- Tommies rating1551 91st of 365, 3 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SEMOMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $STMNMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the St. Thomas Tommies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at St. Thomas Tommies
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: St. Thomas 73% to win. Projected score St. Thomas 78, Southeast Missouri State 70; spread St. Thomas −8, total 147.5. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at St. Thomas Tommies, Thu, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ET.