South Alabama Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
South Alabama at SMU: Bandwagon's model makes SMU a 90% favorite (SMU −15.5).
South Alabama Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs odds and win probability
Axle gives SMU a 90% chance to win, by about 15 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has SMU
All CBB ratings| USA | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1500 172nd of 365 | 1577 70th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 90% | +14 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:18 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:40 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:09 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:15 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | — |
South Alabama Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mustangs a 15.5-point favorite at home, with a 90% chance to win. The model total is 150.5. Ratings: Mustangs 1577 (70th of 365), Jaguars 1500 (172nd). The Mustangs are 3-0; the Jaguars are 1-2. The Mustangs have won 3 of their last 5; the Jaguars 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
South Alabama Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UCF Knights | L 69–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | W 83–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 77–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 67–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 85–94 | – | – | matchup |
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Prairie View A&M Panthers | W 98–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VMI Keydets | W 95–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | W 85–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 79–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 58–62 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaguars1-2 10th · L1
- Jaguars rating1500 172nd of 365, 2 games
- Mustangs3-0 9th · W3
- Mustangs rating1577 70th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $USAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Alabama Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SMU Mustangs 3-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SMUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on South Alabama Jaguars at SMU Mustangs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: SMU 90% to win. Projected score SMU 83, South Alabama 68; spread SMU −15.5, total 150.5. South Alabama Jaguars at SMU Mustangs, Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ET.