Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Cal Poly Mustangs prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Northern Arizona at Cal Poly: Bandwagon's model makes Cal Poly a 79% favorite (Cal Poly −10).
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Cal Poly Mustangs odds and win probability
Axle gives Cal Poly a 79% chance to win, by about 10 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Cal Poly
All CBB ratings| NAU | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1367 344th of 365 | 1475 220th of 365 |
| Record | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Cal Poly Mustangs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mustangs a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 150. Ratings: Mustangs 1475 (220th of 365), Lumberjacks 1367 (344th). The Mustangs are 1-1; the Lumberjacks are 0-3. The Mustangs have won 1 of their last 5; the Lumberjacks 0 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Mustangs won 0, the Lumberjacks 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 59–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 65–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Rebels | L 77–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho State Bengals | L 65–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montana State Bobcats | L 65–76 | – | – | matchup |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 84–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC San Diego Tritons | L 69–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | W 108–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Irvine Anteaters | L 85–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC San Diego Tritons | L 64–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 87–93 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cal Poly Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lumberjacks0-3 10th · L3
- Lumberjacks rating1367 344th of 365, 2 games
- Mustangs1-1 7th · L1
- Mustangs rating1475 220th of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $NAUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CPMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cal Poly Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal Poly Mustangs
Sign in to post a take on $NAUMBBCPMBB261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Cal Poly 79% to win. Projected score Cal Poly 80, Northern Arizona 70; spread Cal Poly −10, total 150. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal Poly Mustangs, Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET.