Early in the North Florida Ospreys at California Baptist Lancers game, the score is tied 2-2 at 17:06 of the 1st. The model gives California Baptist an 86% chance, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · CBU Events Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreNorth Florida 71, California Baptist 63 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerCalifornia Baptist 86%
- Pregame Projected scoreCalifornia Baptist 79, North Florida 66
- Model spreadCalifornia Baptist −13 total 145.5
- Margin8 projected 13.1
- Total134 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Florida Ospreys or California Baptist Lancers: the bandwagon
Axle 14–86Market –
FinalPregame: CBU 86%Baseline: CBU 51.8% (−34.3)Big swing: 27.7 ptsClutch window: 7:39
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNF | 33 | 38 | 71 |
| CBU | 31 | 32 | 63 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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North Florida Ospreys at California Baptist Lancers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to UNF−11.6 points for CBU over the last 5:00
Big swing27.7 ptstoward UNF at 21:28 of game time
Clutch window7:39within 5 points in the final half
BaselineCBU 51.8%game average, −34.3 points from the pregame 86.1%
North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UNF | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | UNF27/57 | CBU21/60 |
| 3-pointers | UNF6/24 | CBU4/27 |
| Free throws | UNF11/18 | CBU17/22 |
| Rebounds | UNF41 | CBU31 |
| Assists | UNF8 | CBU10 |
| Turnovers | UNF18 | CBU15 |
| Steals | UNF6 | CBU10 |
| Blocks | UNF5 | CBU1 |
| Points in the paint | UNF42 | CBU20 |
| Fast-break points | UNF13 | CBU10 |
| Fouls | UNF17 | CBU16 |
| Largest lead | UNF11 | CBU3 |
North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UNF | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNF71 | CBU63 |
| Average win probability | UNF48% | CBU52% |
| Longest scoring run | UNF+8 | CBU+5 |
| Time leading | UNF30:47 | CBU2:44 |
North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 21 h ago
Ospreys14%
Win chanceLancers86%
SpreadCBU −13closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+620away / −620homeaway / home
Line movementCBU win chance, 38 stored lines
+21 pts for CBU between Oct 29 and Nov 3
95%60%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | CBU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:18 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 90% | +25 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- CBU 1574 · UNF 1376
- Home spread
- −13
- Stored
- Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET · 2026-11-04 03:28 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: North Florida Ospreys 71, California Baptist Lancers 63. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
OspreysLancers
Neutrals only–
OspreysLancers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lancers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lancers a 13-point favorite at home, with a 86% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Lancers 1548 (90th of 361), Ospreys 1403 (319th). The Lancers are 0-1; the Ospreys are 1-0. The Lancers have won 3 of their last 5; the Ospreys 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Florida Ospreys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at California Baptist Lancers | W 71–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Georgia Wolves | L 85–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville Dolphins | L 61–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | W 76–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stetson Hatters | L 71–76 | – | – | matchup |
California Baptist Lancers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Florida Ospreys | L 63–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 60–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | W 63–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | W 86–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Utah Thunderbirds | W 82–75 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Florida Ospreys: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
California Baptist Lancers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Ospreys1-0 2nd · W1
- Ospreys rating1403 319th of 361, 1 games
- Lancers0-1 9th · L1
- Lancers rating1548 90th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNFMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNFMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNFMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Florida Ospreys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CBUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CBUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CBUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CBUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the California Baptist Lancers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Florida Ospreys at California Baptist Lancers
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Final: North Florida 71, California Baptist 63. Bandwagon's model had the California Baptist at 86% and projected California Baptist 79, North Florida 66; spread California Baptist −13, total 145.5.