Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Francisco Dons prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Nevada at San Francisco: Bandwagon's model makes Nevada a 54% favorite (San Francisco −0.5).
Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Francisco Dons odds and win probability
Axle gives Nevada a 54% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Nevada
All CBB ratings| NEV | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1590 58th of 365 | 1541 112th of 365 |
| Record | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | — |
Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Francisco Dons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wolf Pack the favorite, with a 54% chance to win; its spread is Dons −0.5. The model total is 146.5. Ratings: Dons 1541 (112th of 365), Wolf Pack 1590 (58th). The Dons are 3-0; the Wolf Pack are 2-0. The Dons have won 4 of their last 5; the Wolf Pack 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Dons won 0, the Wolf Pack 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Nevada Wolf Pack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Saint Mary's Gaels | W 96–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Robert Morris Colonials | W 86–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 69–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liberty Flames | W 73–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Murray State Racers | W 89–75 | – | – | matchup |
San Francisco Dons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Montana Grizzlies | W 63–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 79–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Radford Highlanders | W 76–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon State Beavers | L 77–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Pilots | W 82–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Dons at Nevada Wolf Pack | 65–81 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Nevada Wolf Pack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Francisco Dons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolf Pack2-0 3rd · W2
- Wolf Pack rating1590 58th of 365, 2 games
- Dons3-0 1st · W3
- Dons rating1541 112th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Nevada Wolf Pack 2-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $NEVMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nevada Wolf Pack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Francisco Dons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Nevada Wolf Pack at San Francisco Dons
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.