NCAA Men's Basketball · Final: Montana Grizzlies 58, San Francisco Dons 63 · War Memorial Gymnasium · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line

Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons: final score and how the prediction did, November 10, 2026

Montana at San Francisco: Bandwagon's model made San Francisco a 74% favorite (San Francisco −8); the DraftKings closing line was San Francisco −11.5 with a total of 147.5, as of Nov 10, 9:57 p.m. ET.

Final scoreMontana 58, San Francisco 63 the projected winner won
Pregame Projected winnerSan Francisco 74%
Pregame Projected scoreSan Francisco 77, Montana 69
Model spreadSan Francisco −8 total 146
Margin5 projected 8.2
Total121 projected 146

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET

Montana Grizzlies or San Francisco Dons: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

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Grizzlies▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Dons▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Axle pregame 26–74Market 13–87

FinalPregame: SF 74%Baseline: SF 53.4% (−20.8)Big swing: 33.9 ptsClutch window: 20:00

Montana Grizzlies

Record 1-2

58+3063+37

San Francisco Dons

Record 3-0

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
MONT	28	30	58
SF	26	37	63

Game clock

Final

Situation

Final

Possession

–

Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons win probability

Bandwagon's model

Last update: 2nd halfFetched at 12:20:58 AM ET

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumSwinging to SF+55.3 points for SF over the last 5:00

Big swing33.9 ptstoward SF at 34:20 of game time

Clutch window20:00within 5 points in the final half

BaselineSF 53.4%game average, −20.8 points from the pregame 74.2%

Box scoreTeam breakdown

Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary 12:20:58 AM ET

Live team statistics
Stat	MONT	SF
Field goals	MONT18/50	SF21/51
3-pointers	MONT5/20	SF4/17
Free throws	MONT17/26	SF17/22
Rebounds	MONT32	SF38
Assists	MONT10	SF7
Turnovers	MONT17	SF16
Steals	MONT9	SF9
Blocks	MONT2	SF3
Points in the paint	MONT20	SF28
Fast-break points	MONT10	SF9
Fouls	MONT20	SF17
Largest lead	MONT9	SF5

Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons team breakdown

From the stored in-game series

Team breakdown
Stat	MONT	SF
Score	MONT58	SF63
Average win probability	MONT47%	SF53%
Longest scoring run	MONT+9	SF+6
Time leading	MONT33:16	SF5:25

Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons model odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 3 h ago

Grizzlies26%

Win chance

Dons74%

SpreadSF −8closing model spread

Total146

Moneyline+289away / −289homeaway / home

Line movementSF win chance, 92 stored lines

+9 pts for SF between Oct 29 and Nov 10

80%60%

Oct 29Nov 4Nov 10

Every stored line

Stored	SF win	Move
Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 11:53 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 10:18 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 5:29 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 3:15 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET	74%	0
Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET	74%	+1
Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 10:15 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 9:56 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 7:22 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 10:32 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 10:03 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 9:48 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 9:43 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 9:33 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 9:28 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 9:08 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 8:58 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 8:13 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET	73%	0
Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET	73%	+2
Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET	71%	0
Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET	71%	+2
Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET	69%	0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET	69%	0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET	69%	−1
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET	70%	0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET	70%	0
Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET	70%	+5
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET	65%	—

Ratings: SF 1541 · MONT 1475
Home spread: −8
Stored: Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET · 2026-11-11 04:28 UTC
Version: Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: Montana Grizzlies 58, San Francisco Dons 63. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

Be the first on the bandwagon

GrizzliesDons

Neutrals only–

GrizzliesDons

Picks locked at kickoff.

Bandwagon minus model, Dons–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

DraftKings line, closing

Axle and the DraftKings line for Montana at San Francisco
	Axle	DraftKings line (closing)
Spread	San Francisco −8	San Francisco −11.5
Total	146	147.5
Moneyline (away / home)	+289 / −289	+525 / −750

DraftKings line: the spread, total and moneylines DraftKings published for this game, the last complete ones read before the game started, as read from a public league scoreboard feed, as of Nov 10, 9:57 p.m. ET; these figures have stood since Nov 10, 9:42 p.m. ET. Shown for comparison; Axle never reads them (how the comparison works).

Montana vs San Francisco odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every Men's college basketball market

Kalshi had Dons at 87% when last read, Nov 10, 9:21 PM ET; Polymarket had them at 87% when last read, Nov 10, 5:51 AM ET; and Axle 2.0 had them at 74% when last read, Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET.

Source	MONT	SF	Price read
Kalshi	13%	87%	Nov 10, 9:21 PM ET · closing price
Polymarket	13%	87%	Nov 10, 5:51 AM ET · closing price
Bandwagon model	26%	74%	Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET · model 2.0

Kalshi minus model, SF: +12Polymarket minus model, SF: +12

Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Dons a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Dons 1541 (112th of 365), Grizzlies 1475 (222nd). The Dons are 3-0; the Grizzlies are 1-2. The Dons have won 4 of their last 5; the Grizzlies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Dons won 1, the Grizzlies 0.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Montana Grizzlies

Opponent	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
at San Francisco Dons	Tue, Nov 10, 10:00 PM ET	L 58–63	–	–	matchup
at Oregon Ducks	Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET	L 69–87	–	–	matchup
vs Idaho Vandals	Wed, Mar 11, 11:40 PM ET	L 66–77	–	–	matchup
at Portland State Vikings	Tue, Mar 10, 9:00 PM ET	W 75–72	–	–	matchup
vs Northern Colorado Bears	Mon, Mar 9, 7:30 PM ET	W 95–89	–	–	matchup

San Francisco Dons

Opponent	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
vs Montana Grizzlies	Tue, Nov 10, 10:00 PM ET	W 63–58	–	–	matchup
vs North Dakota State Bison	Fri, Nov 6, 10:00 PM ET	W 79–70	–	–	matchup
vs Radford Highlanders	Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET	W 76–62	–	–	matchup
at Oregon State Beavers	Sun, Mar 8, 8:30 PM ET	L 77–78	–	–	matchup
vs Portland Pilots	Sat, Mar 7, 9:00 PM ET	W 82–65	–	–	matchup

Head-to-head

Game	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons	Sat, Dec 21, 6:00 PM ET	67–71	–	–	matchup

Injuries

Montana Grizzlies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

San Francisco Dons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings

Grizzlies1-2 6th · L1
Grizzlies rating1475 222nd of 365, 1 games
Dons3-0 1st · W3
Dons rating1541 112th of 365, 2 games

Montana Grizzlies 1-2

EveryoneFansNeutrals

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MONTMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MONTMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MONTMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $MONTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montana Grizzlies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Grizzlies roster, schedule and more

San Francisco Dons 3-0

EveryoneFansNeutrals

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W3

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SFMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SFMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

–

Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SFMBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $SFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Francisco Dons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Dons roster, schedule and more

Takes on Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

Final: Montana 58, San Francisco 63. Bandwagon's model had the San Francisco at 74% and projected San Francisco 77, Montana 69; spread San Francisco −8, total 146. Last read: Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 87% for San Francisco.