Central Arkansas Bears vs Jacksonville Dolphins prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Central Arkansas at Jacksonville: Bandwagon's model makes Jacksonville a 55% favorite (Jacksonville −2.5).
Central Arkansas Bears vs Jacksonville Dolphins odds and win probability
Axle gives Jacksonville a 55% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has Jacksonville
All CBB ratings| CARK | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1524 142nd of 365 | 1451 252nd of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | JAX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | — |
Central Arkansas Bears vs Jacksonville Dolphins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Dolphins a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 145. Ratings: Dolphins 1451 (252nd of 365), Bears 1524 (142nd). The Dolphins are 2-1; the Bears are 2-1. The Dolphins have won 3 of their last 5; the Bears 4 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Dolphins won 4, the Bears 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Central Arkansas Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 60–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | W 85–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | W 73–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bellarmine Knights | W 86–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Austin Peay Governors | W 93–88 | – | – | matchup |
Jacksonville Dolphins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas City Roos | W 79–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 57–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bellarmine Knights | L 79–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Florida Ospreys | W 85–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stetson Hatters | W 89–85 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Dolphins at Central Arkansas Bears | 60–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Dolphins at Central Arkansas Bears | 77–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Central Arkansas Bears at Jacksonville Dolphins | 62–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| Central Arkansas Bears at Jacksonville Dolphins | 55–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Dolphins at Central Arkansas Bears | 74–64 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Central Arkansas Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Jacksonville Dolphins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bears2-1 3rd · W1
- Bears rating1524 142nd of 365, 2 games
- Dolphins2-1 1st · W1
- Dolphins rating1451 252nd of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $CARKMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Central Arkansas Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $JAXMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Jacksonville Dolphins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Central Arkansas Bears at Jacksonville Dolphins
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Jacksonville 55% to win. Projected score Jacksonville 74, Central Arkansas 71; spread Jacksonville −2.5, total 145. Central Arkansas Bears at Jacksonville Dolphins, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.