Xavier Musketeers vs Dayton Flyers prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Xavier at Dayton: Bandwagon's model makes Dayton a 68% favorite (Dayton −7.5).
Xavier Musketeers vs Dayton Flyers odds and win probability
Axle gives Dayton a 68% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Dayton
All WCBB ratings| XAV | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1472 194th of 357 | 1505 165th of 357 |
| Record | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | — |
Xavier Musketeers vs Dayton Flyers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flyers a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 137. Ratings: Flyers 1505 (165th of 357), Musketeers 1472 (194th). The Flyers are 1-1; the Musketeers are 3-0. The Flyers have won 3 of their last 5; the Musketeers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Flyers won 1, the Musketeers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Xavier Musketeers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Akron Zips | W 70–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | W 91–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 75–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. John's Red Storm | L 48–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Creighton Bluejays | L 71–73 | – | – | matchup |
Dayton Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Penn State Lady Lions | W 77–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | L 87–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at George Mason Patriots | L 85–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs George Washington Revolutionaries | W 62–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | W 79–62 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Flyers at Xavier Musketeers | 71–66 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Xavier Musketeers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dayton Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Musketeers3-0 4th · W3
- Musketeers rating1472 194th of 357, 3 games
- Flyers1-1 6th · W1
- Flyers rating1505 165th of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $XAVWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Xavier Musketeers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dayton Flyers 1-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $DAYWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dayton Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Xavier Musketeers at Dayton Flyers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.