UCF Knights vs Florida State Seminoles prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
UCF at Florida State: Bandwagon's model makes Florida State a 76% favorite (Florida State −10.5).
UCF Knights vs Florida State Seminoles odds and win probability
Axle gives Florida State a 76% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Florida State
All WCBB ratings| UCF | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1472 195th of 357 | 1522 148th of 357 |
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 76% | +12 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:28 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 64% | +2 |
| Nov 8, 3:43 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:08 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:58 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | — |
UCF Knights vs Florida State Seminoles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seminoles a 10.5-point favorite, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 135. Ratings: Seminoles 1522 (148th of 357), Knights 1472 (195th). The Seminoles are 3-0; the Knights are 2-1. The Seminoles have won 4 of their last 5; the Knights 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UCF Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | W 85–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 65–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida A&M Rattlers | W 85–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 35–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | W 72–62 | – | – | matchup |
Florida State Seminoles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida A&M Rattlers | W 101–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Florida Ospreys | W 74–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Merrimack Warriors | W 81–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | L 60–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 77–74 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UCF Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida State Seminoles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Knights2-1 16th · W1
- Knights rating1472 195th of 357, 3 games
- Seminoles3-0 4th · W3
- Seminoles rating1522 148th of 357, 3 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
UCF Knights 2-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 16th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UCFWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UCF Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $FSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida State Seminoles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UCF Knights at Florida State Seminoles
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Florida State 76% to win. Projected score Florida State 73, UCF 62; spread Florida State −10.5, total 135. UCF Knights at Florida State Seminoles, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET.