Tarleton State Texans vs Nicholls Colonels prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Tarleton State at Nicholls: Bandwagon's model makes Nicholls a 60% favorite (Nicholls −5.5).
Tarleton State Texans vs Nicholls Colonels odds and win probability
Axle gives Nicholls a 60% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Nicholls
All WCBB ratings| TAR | NICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1456 221st of 357 | 1447 231st of 357 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NICH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 60% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:53 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:48 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 59% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:53 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:48 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:28 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | — |
Tarleton State Texans vs Nicholls Colonels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Colonels a 5.5-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 127.5. Ratings: Colonels 1447 (231st of 357), Texans 1456 (221st). The Colonels are 2-2; the Texans are 1-1. The Colonels have won 2 of their last 5; the Texans 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Colonels won 1, the Texans 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Tarleton State Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at TCU Horned Frogs | L 42–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | W 66–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Baptist Lancers | L 60–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | W 60–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UT Arlington Mavericks | W 65–54 | – | – | matchup |
Nicholls Colonels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Lady Bulldogs | L 48–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa State Cyclones | L 44–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | L 60–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Incarnate Word Cardinals | W 81–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SE Louisiana Lady Lions | W 57–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholls Colonels at Tarleton State Texans | 58–51 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nicholls Colonels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Texans1-1 6th · L1
- Texans rating1456 221st of 357, 2 games
- Colonels2-2 2nd · W1
- Colonels rating1447 231st of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TARWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NICHWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nicholls Colonels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Tarleton State Texans at Nicholls Colonels
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Nicholls 60% to win. Projected score Nicholls 67, Tarleton State 61; spread Nicholls −5.5, total 127.5. Tarleton State Texans at Nicholls Colonels, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.