Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Missouri State Lady Bears: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreSoutheast Missouri State 40, Missouri State 77 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMissouri State 81%
- Pregame Projected scoreMissouri State 71, Southeast Missouri State 59
- Model spreadMissouri State −12.5 total 130.5
- Margin37 projected 12.5
- Total117 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks or Missouri State Lady Bears: the bandwagon
Axle 19–81Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEMO | 11 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 40 |
| MOST | 15 | 19 | 17 | 26 | 77 |
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Missouri State Lady Bears win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Missouri State Lady Bears live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SEMO | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SEMO14/52 | MOST28/59 |
| 3-pointers | SEMO4/20 | MOST2/12 |
| Free throws | SEMO8/10 | MOST19/21 |
| Rebounds | SEMO24 | MOST44 |
| Assists | SEMO4 | MOST14 |
| Turnovers | SEMO18 | MOST14 |
| Steals | SEMO7 | MOST9 |
| Blocks | SEMO4 | MOST3 |
| Points in the paint | SEMO16 | MOST48 |
| Fast-break points | SEMO8 | MOST19 |
| Fouls | SEMO20 | MOST15 |
| Largest lead | SEMO2 | MOST37 |
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Missouri State Lady Bears team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SEMO | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEMO40 | MOST77 |
| Average win probability | SEMO5% | MOST95% |
| Longest scoring run | SEMO+5 | MOST+17 |
| Time leading | SEMO0:17 | MOST37:45 |
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Missouri State Lady Bears odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MOST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 81% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 85% | +22 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MOST 1587 · SEMO 1459
- Home spread
- −12.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 40, Missouri State Lady Bears 77. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Missouri State Lady Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lady Bears a 12.5-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Lady Bears 1600 (76th of 356), Redhawks 1446 (233rd). The Lady Bears are 1-0; the Redhawks are 0-1. The Lady Bears have won 4 of their last 5; the Redhawks 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lady Bears won 3, the Redhawks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Missouri State Lady Bears | L 40–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Illinois Leathernecks | L 66–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Morehead State Eagles | W 60–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Little Rock Trojans | W 68–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | W 83–61 | – | – | matchup |
Missouri State Lady Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | W 77–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | L 45–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | W 85–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters | W 43–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 74–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Lady Bears at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 67–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| Missouri State Lady Bears at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 77–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Missouri State Lady Bears | 66–74 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Missouri State Lady Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redhawks0-1 8th · L1
- Redhawks rating1446 233rd of 356, 1 games
- Lady Bears1-0 5th · W1
- Lady Bears rating1600 76th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SEMOWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MOSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Lady Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Southeast Missouri State 40, Missouri State 77. Bandwagon's model had the Missouri State at 81% and projected Missouri State 71, Southeast Missouri State 59; spread Missouri State −12.5, total 130.5.