Northern Kentucky Norse vs Baylor Bears prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
Northern Kentucky at Baylor: Bandwagon's model makes Baylor an 88% favorite (Baylor −16.5).
Northern Kentucky Norse vs Baylor Bears odds and win probability
Axle gives Baylor a 88% chance to win, by about 17 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Baylor
All WCBB ratings| NKU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1492 176th of 357 | 1689 23rd of 357 |
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:12 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:13 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:47 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 88% | — |
Northern Kentucky Norse vs Baylor Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bears a 16.5-point favorite at home, with a 88% chance to win. The model total is 129.5. Ratings: Bears 1689 (23rd of 357), Norse 1492 (176th). The Bears are 3-0; the Norse are 2-1. The Bears have won 4 of their last 5; the Norse 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Northern Kentucky Norse
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 61–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 28–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs IU Indianapolis Jaguars | L 72–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Mercy Titans | L 69–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oakland Golden Grizzlies | W 84–59 | – | – | matchup |
Baylor Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W 112–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | W 72–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 87–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 46–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 67–62 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Northern Kentucky Norse: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Baylor Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Norse2-1 1st · W1
- Norse rating1492 176th of 357, 2 games
- Bears3-0 5th · W3
- Bears rating1689 23rd of 357, 3 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NKUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Kentucky Norse bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Baylor Bears 3-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BAYWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Baylor Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northern Kentucky Norse at Baylor Bears
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Baylor 88% to win. Projected score Baylor 73, Northern Kentucky 56; spread Baylor −16.5, total 129.5. Northern Kentucky Norse at Baylor Bears, Sun, Nov 22, 3:00 PM ET.