North Dakota State Bison vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
North Dakota State at UTSA: Bandwagon's model makes UTSA a 54% favorite (UTSA −3.5).
North Dakota State Bison vs UTSA Roadrunners odds and win probability
Axle gives UTSA a 54% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has UTSA
All WCBB ratings| NDSU | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1594 82nd of 357 | 1554 121st of 357 |
| Record | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UTSA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 54% | +3 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 6:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:47 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:08 PM ET | 51% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 6:03 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:58 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 2:53 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 2:48 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | — |
North Dakota State Bison vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Roadrunners a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 128. Ratings: Roadrunners 1554 (121st of 357), Bison 1594 (82nd). The Roadrunners are 0-2; the Bison are 1-2. The Roadrunners have won 2 of their last 5; the Bison 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
North Dakota State Bison
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Creighton Bluejays | L 60–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Gonzaga Bulldogs | L 56–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbia Lions | L 57–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chattanooga Mocs | W 75–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits | L 51–64 | – | – | matchup |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 56–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Lady Rebels | L 51–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 52–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | W 54–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| at East Carolina Pirates | W 54–44 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Dakota State Bison: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bison1-2 7th · L1
- Bison rating1594 82nd of 357, 2 games
- Roadrunners0-2 12th · L2
- Roadrunners rating1554 121st of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NDSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Dakota State Bison bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UTSA Roadrunners 0-2
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 12th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $UTSAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Dakota State Bison at UTSA Roadrunners
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: UTSA 54% to win. Projected score UTSA 66, North Dakota State 62; spread UTSA −3.5, total 128. North Dakota State Bison at UTSA Roadrunners, Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM ET.