The Princeton Tigers beat the Murray State Racers 76-74 to finish the game. The model had the Tigers at a 63% chance to win at home, and they closed the final two points ahead.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Jadwin Gymnasium · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Murray State Racers vs Princeton Tigers: final score and how the prediction did, November 8, 2026
- Final scoreMurray State 74, Princeton 76 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerPrinceton 63%
- Pregame Projected scorePrinceton 68, Murray State 62
- Model spreadPrinceton −6.5 total 129.5
- Margin2 projected 6.3
- Total150 projected 129.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Murray State Racers or Princeton Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle pregame 37–63Market 49–51
FinalPregame: PRIN 39%Baseline: PRIN 36.4% (−3.0)Big swing: 67.1 ptsClutch window: 8:34
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 17 | 22 | 21 | 14 | 74 |
| PRIN | 17 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 76 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Murray State Racers at Princeton Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to PRIN+79.6 points for PRIN over the last 5:00
Big swing67.1 ptstoward PRIN at 39:34 of game time
Clutch window8:34within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselinePRIN 36.4%game average, −3.0 points from the pregame 39.4%
Murray State Racers vs Princeton Tigers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MUR | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MUR27/63 | PRIN31/59 |
| 3-pointers | MUR10/26 | PRIN6/18 |
| Free throws | MUR10/13 | PRIN8/8 |
| Rebounds | MUR32 | PRIN34 |
| Assists | MUR14 | PRIN15 |
| Turnovers | MUR12 | PRIN13 |
| Steals | MUR7 | PRIN7 |
| Blocks | MUR1 | PRIN5 |
| Points in the paint | MUR32 | PRIN42 |
| Fast-break points | MUR7 | PRIN10 |
| Fouls | MUR14 | PRIN12 |
| Largest lead | MUR6 | PRIN9 |
Murray State Racers vs Princeton Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MUR | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MUR74 | PRIN76 |
| Average win probability | MUR64% | PRIN36% |
| Longest scoring run | MUR+12 | PRIN+13 |
| Time leading | MUR25:24 | PRIN7:55 |
Murray State Racers vs Princeton Tigers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 8, 1:12 PM ET
Racers37%
Win chanceTigers63%
SpreadPRIN −6.5closing model spread
Total129.5
Moneyline+170away / −170homeaway / home
Line movementPRIN win chance, 71 stored lines
+13 pts for PRIN between Oct 29 and Nov 8
68%29%
Oct 29Nov 3Nov 8
Every stored line
| Stored | PRIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 1:12 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:12 PM ET | 63% | +24 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:49 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:59 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:49 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:10 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:15 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:04 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:25 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 1:59 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:49 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:35 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 39% | −3 |
| Nov 6, 9:07 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:02 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:57 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:52 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:11 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:07 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 7:52 PM ET | 42% | −3 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:47 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:12 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:03 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:18 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:03 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 2:07 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:52 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:53 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 45% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | +12 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | −12 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 47% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- PRIN 1704 · MUR 1639
- Home spread
- −6.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 8, 1:12 PM ET · 2026-11-08 18:12 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread +0.5 → −6.5, home 39% → 63%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Murray State Racers 74, Princeton Tigers 76. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
RacersTigers
Neutrals only–
RacersTigers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Tigers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Murray State vs Princeton odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Women's college basketball marketKalshi had Racers at 61% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 37% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 61% when last read, ; the two venues were 24 points apart at those reads.
| Source | MUR | PRIN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% | 39% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 37% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, PRIN: −24Polymarket minus model, PRIN: 0
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Murray State Racers vs Princeton Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 6.5-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 129.5. Ratings: Tigers 1709 (19th of 357), Racers 1634 (57th). The Tigers are 4-0; the Racers are 1-2. The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5; the Racers 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Murray State Racers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Princeton Tigers | L 74–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | L 64–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maryland Terrapins | L 67–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Evansville Purple Aces | W 91–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Iowa Panthers | W 72–59 | – | – | matchup |
Princeton Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Villanova Wildcats | W 81–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Murray State Racers | W 76–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Richmond Spiders | W 65–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Belmont Bruins | W 63–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowgirls | L 68–82 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Murray State Racers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Princeton Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Racers1-2 6th · L2
- Racers rating1634 57th of 357, 2 games
- Tigers4-0 1st · W4
- Tigers rating1709 19th of 357, 3 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MURWBB
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No stances yet today on $MURWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Murray State Racers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Princeton Tigers 4-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 1st · streak W4
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PRINWBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PRINWBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PRINWBB
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No stances yet today on $PRINWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Princeton Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Murray State Racers at Princeton Tigers
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Final: Murray State 74, Princeton 76. Bandwagon's model had the Princeton at 63% and projected Princeton 68, Murray State 62; spread Princeton −6.5, total 129.5. Last read: Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 63% for Princeton.