Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Southern Miss Lady Eagles prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
Mississippi State at Southern Miss: Bandwagon's model makes Mississippi State a 67% favorite (Mississippi State −2).
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Southern Miss Lady Eagles odds and win probability
Axle gives Mississippi State a 67% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Mississippi State
All WCBB ratings| MSST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1618 69th of 357 | 1450 228th of 357 |
| Record | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | USM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 33% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 2:02 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 32% | — |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Southern Miss Lady Eagles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 2-point favorite, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 129.5. Ratings: Lady Eagles 1450 (228th of 357), Bulldogs 1618 (69th). The Lady Eagles are 2-1; the Bulldogs are 2-0. The Lady Eagles have won 2 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Lady Eagles won 0, the Bulldogs 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UT Martin Skyhawks | W 114–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Alabama Lions | W 68–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 68–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | L 63–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 64–68 | – | – | matchup |
Southern Miss Lady Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Mississippi Valley State Devilettes | W 75–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 48–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 72–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 68–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 43–57 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss Lady Eagles at Mississippi State Bulldogs | 64–87 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mississippi State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Southern Miss Lady Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs2-0 14th · W2
- Bulldogs rating1618 69th of 357, 2 games
- Lady Eagles2-1 7th · W1
- Lady Eagles rating1450 228th of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 14th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $MSSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USMWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Miss Lady Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mississippi State Bulldogs at Southern Miss Lady Eagles
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Mississippi State 67% to win. Projected score Mississippi State 66, Southern Miss 64; spread Mississippi State −2, total 129.5. Mississippi State Bulldogs at Southern Miss Lady Eagles, Sun, Nov 22, 3:00 PM ET.