Buffalo Bulls lead Georgia State Panthers 39-36 with 7:56 left in the 3rd, a 3-point margin. The model has the Bulls at 54% at home, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Alumni Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Georgia State Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreGeorgia State 81, Buffalo 82 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBuffalo 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreBuffalo 67, Georgia State 63
- Model spreadBuffalo −4 total 130.5
- Margin1 projected 3.8
- Total163 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Georgia State Panthers or Buffalo Bulls: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market –
FinalPregame: BUF 54%Baseline: BUF 53.3% (−1.1)Big swing: 80.6 ptsClutch window: 8:45
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 16 | 13 | 32 | 20 | 81 |
| BUF | 15 | 19 | 24 | 24 | 82 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Georgia State Panthers at Buffalo Bulls win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to GAST−11.1 points for BUF over the last 5:00
Big swing80.6 ptstoward BUF at 39:54 of game time
Clutch window8:45within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineBUF 53.3%game average, −1.1 points from the pregame 54.4%
Georgia State Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | GAST | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | GAST33/64 | BUF32/53 |
| 3-pointers | GAST6/25 | BUF4/13 |
| Free throws | GAST9/13 | BUF14/20 |
| Rebounds | GAST21 | BUF37 |
| Assists | GAST17 | BUF22 |
| Turnovers | GAST11 | BUF25 |
| Steals | GAST17 | BUF7 |
| Blocks | GAST2 | BUF4 |
| Points in the paint | GAST42 | BUF44 |
| Fast-break points | GAST25 | BUF18 |
| Fouls | GAST23 | BUF14 |
| Largest lead | GAST8 | BUF8 |
Georgia State Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | GAST | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GAST81 | BUF82 |
| Average win probability | GAST47% | BUF53% |
| Longest scoring run | GAST+10 | BUF+8 |
| Time leading | GAST15:29 | BUF16:59 |
Georgia State Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET
Panthers46%
Win chanceBulls54%
SpreadBUF −4closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+119away / −119homeaway / home
Line movementBUF win chance, 10 stored lines
−9 pts for BUF between Oct 29 and Nov 2
69%47%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | BUF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | −11 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- BUF 1349 · GAST 1394
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET · 2026-11-02 23:47 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Georgia State Panthers 81, Buffalo Bulls 82. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bulls–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Georgia State Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 4-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Bulls 1351 (313th of 356), Panthers 1391 (286th). The Bulls are 1-0; the Panthers are 0-1. The Bulls have won 2 of their last 5; the Panthers 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Georgia State Panthers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 81–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 66–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 74–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 84–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | L 75–82 | – | – | matchup |
Buffalo Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 82–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Massachusetts Minutewomen | L 55–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | L 53–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 69–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 43–58 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Georgia State Panthers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Buffalo Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Panthers0-1 12th · L1
- Panthers rating1391 286th of 356, 1 games
- Bulls1-0 3rd · W1
- Bulls rating1351 313th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 12th · streak L1
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Buffalo Bulls 1-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
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