East Carolina Pirates vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
East Carolina at UNC Wilmington: Bandwagon's model makes East Carolina a 69% favorite (East Carolina −3).
East Carolina Pirates vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks odds and win probability
Axle gives East Carolina a 69% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has East Carolina
All WCBB ratings| ECU | UNCW | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1537 134th of 357 | 1357 309th of 357 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNCW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:08 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:38 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:58 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:47 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 31% | — |
East Carolina Pirates vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Pirates a 3-point favorite, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 129.5. Ratings: Seahawks 1357 (309th of 357), Pirates 1537 (134th). The Seahawks are 2-0; the Pirates are 1-1. The Seahawks have won 2 of their last 5; the Pirates 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Seahawks won 0, the Pirates 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
East Carolina Pirates
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Liberty Flames | L 49–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers | W 61–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTSA Roadrunners | L 44–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 76–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte 49ers | W 64–57 | – | – | matchup |
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Carolina Central Eagles | W 82–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Monmouth Hawks | L 61–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northeastern Huskies | W 51–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Elon Phoenix | L 54–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Carolina A&T Aggies | L 46–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates | 63–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates | 56–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates | 49–76 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
East Carolina Pirates: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNC Wilmington Seahawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Pirates1-1 5th · L1
- Pirates rating1537 134th of 357, 2 games
- Seahawks2-0 3rd · W2
- Seahawks rating1357 309th of 357, 1 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ECUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the East Carolina Pirates bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $UNCWWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UNC Wilmington Seahawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on East Carolina Pirates at UNC Wilmington Seahawks
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: East Carolina 69% to win. Projected score East Carolina 66, UNC Wilmington 63; spread East Carolina −3, total 129.5. East Carolina Pirates at UNC Wilmington Seahawks, Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET.