Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Golden Knights at Oilers: Bandwagon's model makes the Oilers a 52% favorite (even).
Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Oilers a 52% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Oilers win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 52%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Polymarket has the Oilers at 56%, Axle at 52%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Oilers
All NHL ratings| VGK | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1548 6th of 32 | 1539 7th of 32 |
| Record | 13-5-2 | 14-3-3 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | EDM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 12:18 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 10:48 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2:52 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 12:47 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 12:28 AM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Nov 11, 11:48 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Nov 11, 9:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | — |
Golden Knights vs Oilers odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Oilers at 56%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VGK | EDM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Oilers the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6. Ratings: Oilers 1539 (7th of 32), Golden Knights 1548 (6th). The Oilers are 14-3-3 in the Pacific Division; the Golden Knights are 13-5-2 in the Pacific Division. The Oilers have won 3 of their last 5; the Golden Knights 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Oilers won 5, the Golden Knights 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Vegas Golden Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Sabres | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Red Wings | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Penguins | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Edmonton Oilers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Rangers | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Jersey Devils | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers | 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Vegas Golden Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Edmonton Oilers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Knights13-5-2 Pacific Division, 2nd · W4
- Golden Knights rating1548 6th of 32, 20 games
- Oilers14-3-3 Pacific Division, 1st · W3
- Oilers rating1539 7th of 32, 20 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Vegas Golden Knights 13-5-2
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 2nd · streak W4
No stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vegas Golden Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Edmonton Oilers 14-3-3
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $OILERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Edmonton Oilers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Oilers 52% to win. Projected score Oilers 3.1, Golden Knights 2.9; spread even, total 6. Polymarket 56% for the Oilers. Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ET.