Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBoise State 91%
- Projected scoreBoise State 43, Colorado State 19
- Model spreadBoise State −23 total 62
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Boise State Broncos or Colorado State Rams: the bandwagon
Axle 91–9Market 89–12
Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BOIS | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOIS– | CSU– |
| Average win probability | BOIS– | CSU– |
| Longest scoring run | BOIS– | CSU– |
| Time leading | BOIS– | CSU– |
Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 9% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 10% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 10% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 9% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 9% | — |
- Ratings
- CSU 1307 · BOIS 1691
- Home spread
- +23
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Boise State vs Colorado State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Broncos at 89%, Polymarket at 89%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 91%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BOIS | CSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 89% | 12% | ||
| Polymarket | 89% | 12% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 91% | 9% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 23-point favorite, with a 91% chance to win. The model total is 62. Ratings: Rams 1307 (127th of 138), Broncos 1691 (13th). The Rams have won 1 of their last 5; the Broncos 5 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rams won 1, the Broncos 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 46–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 38–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 37–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | W 32–7 | – | – | matchup |
Colorado State Rams
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Utah State Aggies | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 56–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 27–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon State Beavers | L 26–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 45–59 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos | 21–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams | 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos | 10–49 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Colorado State Rams: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Broncos– 1st · W7
- Broncos rating1691 13th of 138, 7 games
- Rams– 7th · L1
- Rams rating1307 127th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
No stances yet today on $BOIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado State Rams bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams
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Model: Boise State 91% to win. Projected score Boise State 43, Colorado State 19; spread Boise State −23, total 62. Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89% for Boise State. Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams, Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM ET.