Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerAlabama 76%
- Projected scoreAlabama 34, Vanderbilt 22
- Model spreadAlabama −11.5 total 55.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Alabama Crimson Tide or Vanderbilt Commodores: the bandwagon
Axle 76–24Market 87–13
Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ALA– | VAN– |
| Average win probability | ALA– | VAN– |
| Longest scoring run | ALA– | VAN– |
| Time leading | ALA– | VAN– |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | VAN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 22% | — |
- Ratings
- VAN 1493 · ALA 1713
- Home spread
- +11.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Crimson Tide at 90%, Polymarket at 83% (7 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ALA | VAN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90% | 10% | ||
| Polymarket | 83% | 17% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 76% | 24% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide a 11.5-point favorite, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 55.5. Ratings: Commodores 1493 (71st of 138), Crimson Tide 1713 (9th). The Commodores have won 0 of their last 5; the Crimson Tide 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Commodores won 1, the Crimson Tide 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | W 31–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Volunteers | L 10–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Bulldogs | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 56–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Carolina Gamecocks | W 49–18 | – | – | matchup |
Vanderbilt Commodores
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas Razorbacks | L 21–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | L 17–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Bulldogs | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 15–21 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide | 14–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores | 35–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide | 3–55 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vanderbilt Commodores: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Crimson Tide– 3rd · W1
- Crimson Tide rating1713 9th of 138, 8 games
- Commodores– 16th · L5
- Commodores rating1493 71st of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $BAMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L5
No stances yet today on $VAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vanderbilt Commodores bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores
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Model: Alabama 76% to win. Projected score Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 22; spread Alabama −11.5, total 55.5. Kalshi 90%, Polymarket 83% for Alabama. Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores, Sat, Nov 14, 12:45 PM ET.