UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs Samford Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
UNC Asheville at Samford: Bandwagon's model makes Samford a 76% favorite (Samford −8.5).
UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs Samford Bulldogs odds and win probability
Axle gives Samford a 76% chance to win, by about 9 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Samford
All CBB ratings| UNCA | SAM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1445 260th of 365 | 1525 139th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SAM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:13 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 75% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | — |
UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs Samford Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 8.5-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 149. Ratings: Bulldogs 1525 (139th of 365), Bulldogs 1445 (260th). The Bulldogs are 1-1; the Bulldogs are 1-2. The Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Western Carolina Catamounts | L 75–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Richmond Spiders | L 77–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at High Point Panthers | L 71–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Longwood Lancers | W 85–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers | L 75–92 | – | – | matchup |
Samford Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Rebels | L 79–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Furman Paladins | L 81–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNC Greensboro Spartans | W 87–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VMI Keydets | W 80–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mercer Bears | L 86–89 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UNC Asheville Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Samford Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs1-2 4th · L1
- Bulldogs rating1445 260th of 365, 2 games
- Bulldogs1-1 5th · L1
- Bulldogs rating1525 139th of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNCAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UNC Asheville Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Samford Bulldogs 1-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SAMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Samford Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Samford Bulldogs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Samford 76% to win. Projected score Samford 79, UNC Asheville 70; spread Samford −8.5, total 149. UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Samford Bulldogs, Sun, Nov 22, 5:00 PM ET.