Drake Bulldogs vs Missouri State Bears prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Drake at Missouri State: Bandwagon's model makes Missouri State a 60% favorite (Missouri State −4).
Drake Bulldogs vs Missouri State Bears odds and win probability
Axle gives Missouri State a 60% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Missouri State
All CBB ratings| DRKE | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1504 165th of 365 | 1468 230th of 365 |
| Record | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MOST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 60% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | — |
Drake Bulldogs vs Missouri State Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bears a 4-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Bears 1468 (230th of 365), Bulldogs 1504 (165th). The Bears are 3-0; the Bulldogs are 2-0. The Bears have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bears won 3, the Bulldogs 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Drake Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southern Jaguars | W 75–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UIC Flames | L 51–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Belmont Bruins | W 100–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Illinois Salukis | W 67–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Iowa Panthers | L 53–75 | – | – | matchup |
Missouri State Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 66–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 75–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 63–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | W 87–74 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Bears at Drake Bulldogs | 60–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears | 69–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears | 80–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| Missouri State Bears at Drake Bulldogs | 57–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| Missouri State Bears at Drake Bulldogs | 65–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears | 49–52 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Drake Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Missouri State Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs2-0 3rd · W2
- Bulldogs rating1504 165th of 365, 1 games
- Bears3-0 2nd · W3
- Bears rating1468 230th of 365, 0 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Drake Bulldogs 2-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $DRKEMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Drake Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MOSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Missouri State 60% to win. Projected score Missouri State 75, Drake 71; spread Missouri State −4, total 145.5. Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears, Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ET.