Teaser Calculator
Choose points, legs and payout: how often every leg must cover.
- One teased leg covers
- 68.0%
- Per-leg rate needed to break even
- 73.9%
- Expected result on $100
- −$15.17
- Spread of outcomes used (σ)
- 12.8 points
- Payout on a win
- $183.33
Assumes each leg was a fair 50-50 line before the tease and the margin is bell-shaped with σ = the model's spread error ÷ 0.798. A bell curve has no key numbers: crossing 3 and 7 in football is worth more than this shows.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the teaser Calculator works
A teaser moves every spread in your favor by a fixed number of points and pays less than a parlay of the same legs. Its payout odds are set by the book: enter the price you are offered.
To price it, the calculator assumes each leg was a fair line before the tease and that the final margin around the line is bell-shaped with a standard deviation σ. The teased leg then covers with probability Φ(points / σ). σ comes from the model's spread error on the backtest: σ = mean absolute error ÷ 0.798 (docs and /odds/methodology).
All legs must cover, so the chance is the leg chance to the power n. Compare it with the payout's break-even chance, 1 / decimal odds. The normal curve has no key numbers, but football margins cluster on 3 and 7, so crossing them is worth more than the curve says. Treat the result as the floor of a teaser's value, not the whole story.
Teaser Calculator example
You enter
- League
- NFL
- Teaser points
- 6 points
- Legs
- 2 legs
- Teaser payout odds
- -120
- Stake
- $100
You get
- One teased leg covers
- 68.0%
- Per-leg rate needed to break even
- 73.9%
- Expected result on $100
- −$15.17
- Spread of outcomes used (σ)
- 12.8 points
- Payout on a win
- $183.33
A two-leg 6-point NFL teaser paying −120 needs both legs to cover 54.5% of the time, which is 73.9% per leg. At the model's NFL spread error each teased leg covers 68.2%, so both cover 46.5% of the time and the teaser comes out short on a bell curve alone (−14.80 on 100).
Teaser Calculator questions
What is a 6-point teaser?
A bet that moves each point spread six points in your favor, with all legs required to win, at lower odds than a straight parlay.
How often do teaser legs need to win?
At a −120 two-leg payout, each leg must cover about 73.9% of the time to break even.
Why 6, 6.5 and 7 points?
They are the common football teaser sizes. The best-known teaser strategy, the Wong teaser, is a six-point NFL tease built on crossing the key numbers 3 and 7.
Why does the calculator use the model's spread error?
It is a measured number: how far final margins land from a model line. A wider spread of outcomes makes each teased point worth less.
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Live on Bandwagon
Teaser calculator for 6, 6.5 and 7 point NFL and college football teasers: the chance each teased leg covers, the teaser's break-even and its expected result.