UC Davis Aggies vs Boise State Broncos prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
UC Davis at Boise State: Bandwagon's model makes Boise State a 69% favorite (Boise State −8).
UC Davis Aggies vs Boise State Broncos odds and win probability
Axle gives Boise State a 69% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Boise State
All WCBB ratings| UCD | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1521 149th of 357 | 1566 108th of 357 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BOIS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 69% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 6:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:47 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | — |
UC Davis Aggies vs Boise State Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 8-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 133.5. Ratings: Broncos 1566 (108th of 357), Aggies 1521 (149th). The Broncos are 3-0; the Aggies are 1-2. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5; the Aggies 1 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 2, the Aggies 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UC Davis Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 60–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Washington Eagles | L 72–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pepperdine Waves | L 68–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC San Diego Tritons | L 79–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UC Riverside Highlanders | W 70–59 | – | – | matchup |
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cal State Northridge Matadors | W 82–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland State Vikings | W 83–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | L 66–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | W 62–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 68–51 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis Aggies at Boise State Broncos | 77–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| UC Davis Aggies at Boise State Broncos | 53–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boise State Broncos at UC Davis Aggies | 62–69 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UC Davis Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies1-2 6th · L2
- Aggies rating1521 149th of 357, 2 games
- Broncos3-0 1st · W3
- Broncos rating1566 108th of 357, 1 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
UC Davis Aggies 1-2
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $UCDWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UC Davis Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BOISWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UC Davis Aggies at Boise State Broncos
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Boise State 69% to win. Projected score Boise State 71, UC Davis 63; spread Boise State −8, total 133.5. UC Davis Aggies at Boise State Broncos, Sun, Nov 22, 4:00 PM ET.