SMU Mustangs vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
SMU at Saint Mary's: Bandwagon's model makes Saint Mary's a 53% favorite (Saint Mary's −3.5).
SMU Mustangs vs Saint Mary's Gaels odds and win probability
Axle gives Saint Mary's a 53% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Saint Mary's
All WCBB ratings| SMU | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1415 263rd of 357 | 1439 242nd of 357 |
| Record | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SMC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:12 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | — |
SMU Mustangs vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gaels a 3.5-point favorite, with a 53% chance to win. The model total is 128.5. Ratings: Gaels 1439 (242nd of 357), Mustangs 1415 (263rd). The Gaels are 1-2; the Mustangs are 3-0. The Gaels have won 0 of their last 5; the Mustangs 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Hampton Lady Pirates | W 66–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Golden Bears | L 34–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 57–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 63–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston College Eagles | L 59–77 | – | – | matchup |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Air Force Falcons | L 37–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 54–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego Toreros | L 62–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | L 50–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Gonzaga Bulldogs | L 67–75 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Saint Mary's Gaels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mustangs3-0 8th · W3
- Mustangs rating1415 263rd of 357, 1 games
- Gaels1-2 9th · W1
- Gaels rating1439 242nd of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
SMU Mustangs 3-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 8th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SMUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 9th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SMCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Saint Mary's Gaels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SMU Mustangs at Saint Mary's Gaels
Sign in to post a take on $SMUWBBSMCWBB261124: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Saint Mary's 53% to win. Projected score Saint Mary's 66, SMU 63; spread Saint Mary's −3.5, total 128.5. SMU Mustangs at Saint Mary's Gaels, Mon, Nov 23, 7:00 PM ET.