Mercer Bears vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
Mercer at Gardner-Webb: Bandwagon's model makes Gardner-Webb a 52% favorite (Gardner-Webb −3).
Mercer Bears vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs odds and win probability
Axle gives Gardner-Webb a 52% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Gardner-Webb
All WCBB ratings| MER | GWEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1450 229th of 357 | 1383 287th of 357 |
| Record | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | GWEB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:12 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | — |
Mercer Bears vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Runnin' Bulldogs a 3-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Runnin' Bulldogs 1383 (287th of 357), Bears 1450 (229th). The Runnin' Bulldogs are 1-0; the Bears are 2-1. The Runnin' Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Bears 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Runnin' Bulldogs won 0, the Bears 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Mercer Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 51–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 69–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Furman Paladins | L 45–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chattanooga Mocs | W 68–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers | L 51–58 | – | – | matchup |
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winthrop Eagles | L 52–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Radford Highlanders | L 59–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Upstate Spartans | W 52–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs High Point Panthers | L 53–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Longwood Lancers | W 53–51 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Mercer Bears | 56–61 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mercer Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bears2-1 4th · L1
- Bears rating1450 229th of 357, 2 games
- Runnin' Bulldogs1-0 2nd · W1
- Runnin' Bulldogs rating1383 287th of 357, 0 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Mercer Bears 2-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MERWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercer Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $GWEBWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mercer Bears at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Gardner-Webb 52% to win. Projected score Gardner-Webb 67, Mercer 64; spread Gardner-Webb −3, total 130.5. Mercer Bears at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs, Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ET.