Grand Canyon Lopes vs SMU Mustangs prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Grand Canyon at SMU: Bandwagon's model makes Grand Canyon a 66% favorite (Grand Canyon −2).
Grand Canyon Lopes vs SMU Mustangs odds and win probability
Axle gives Grand Canyon a 66% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Grand Canyon
All WCBB ratings| GCU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1576 101st of 357 | 1415 263rd of 357 |
| Record | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 6:48 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 34% | −2 |
| Nov 9, 11:13 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:53 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:48 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:48 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:53 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:48 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:23 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:08 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:28 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 36% | — |
Grand Canyon Lopes vs SMU Mustangs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lopes a 2-point favorite, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Mustangs 1415 (263rd of 357), Lopes 1576 (101st). The Mustangs are 3-0; the Lopes are 2-0. The Mustangs have won 1 of their last 5; the Lopes 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Mustangs won 0, the Lopes 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Grand Canyon Lopes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon Ducks | W 81–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jackson State Lady Tigers | W 77–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 59–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 75–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowgirls | L 57–59 | – | – | matchup |
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Hampton Lady Pirates | W 66–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Golden Bears | L 34–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 57–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 63–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston College Eagles | L 59–77 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs at Grand Canyon Lopes | 60–76 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Grand Canyon Lopes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lopes2-0 2nd · W2
- Lopes rating1576 101st of 357, 2 games
- Mustangs3-0 8th · W3
- Mustangs rating1415 263rd of 357, 1 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $GCUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Grand Canyon Lopes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SMU Mustangs 3-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 8th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SMUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Grand Canyon Lopes at SMU Mustangs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Grand Canyon 66% to win. Projected score Grand Canyon 66, SMU 64; spread Grand Canyon −2, total 130.5. Grand Canyon Lopes at SMU Mustangs, Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ET.