Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Canadiens at Avalanche: Bandwagon's model makes the Avalanche a 56% favorite (Avalanche −0.5).
Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Avalanche a 56% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Avalanche win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Polymarket has the Avalanche at 60%, Axle at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Avalanche
All NHL ratings| MTL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1551 5th of 32 | 1567 3rd of 32 |
| Record | 12-3-4 | 11-6-3 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | COL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 12:18 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 10:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:43 PM ET | 56% | −1 |
| Nov 12, 2:52 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | — |
Canadiens vs Avalanche odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Avalanche at 60%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MTL | COL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40% | 60% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Avalanche a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Avalanche 1567 (3rd of 32), Canadiens 1551 (5th). The Avalanche are 11-6-3 in the Central Division; the Canadiens are 12-3-4 in the Atlantic Division. The Avalanche have won 2 of their last 5; the Canadiens 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Avalanche won 2, the Canadiens 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Boston Bruins | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Colorado Avalanche
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ottawa Senators | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville Predators | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 2–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens | 3–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche | 2–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens | 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens | 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Colorado Avalanche: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Canadiens12-3-4 Atlantic Division, 2nd · W1
- Canadiens rating1551 5th of 32, 19 games
- Avalanche11-6-3 Central Division, 3rd · L1
- Avalanche rating1567 3rd of 32, 20 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Montreal Canadiens 12-3-4
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Colorado Avalanche 11-6-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $AVALANCHE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado Avalanche bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche
Sign in to post a take on $CANADIENSAVALANCHE261126: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Avalanche 56% to win. Projected score Avalanche 3.5, Canadiens 3.0; spread Avalanche −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 60% for the Avalanche. Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, Wed, Nov 25, 9:30 PM ET.